Love is in the air

Another week gone. Another week closer to the end of the summer. We best all get saving for Christmas and that trip to Vegas for New Year's Eve.

Since my last blog loads seems to have happened. I've been on the streets celebrating Portugal's Euro 2016 win with a load of Portuguese lads and I put my private parts on the line by betting on Reality TV. It has been eventful. Oh and Chris Froome saved me. Again.

It had been an extra-ordinarily quiet week before Saturday. I felt like I couldn't back a winner if I backed both sides of a coin toss. Discipline is so hard to keep in these periods. I'd had a great period. Actually I've had a great year overall and I had to regress back to the mean. I guess those losers were just part of it, but every punter will tell you how challenging it is to keep your discipline when things just aren't clicking. When you think a horse is value at 25/1 and it gets beaten in a photo-finish. That sort of thing.

My Grandad loves his poker and has always managed to keep his discipline. He goes to a set of casinos probably two or three times a week to play poker tournaments and has never once had a bet on one of the tables or on the slots. In 15 years, not a single bet. I find that remarkable but he knows the maths and he doesn't budge. He's too Yorkshire for that. Too stubborn and actually too shrewd. He wins more than he loses and never chases. Best of all, he always makes sure to treat my Grandma when he wins and he does right. The phrase "You judge a winner by how he loses" is always prominent with his discipline. I have no idea where that phrase is from. Probably a film or something. But it's true. Everyone can win and do it right, but the real test is when you find trouble. How do you handle it? The best handle it and the worst don't. I knew I had to keep my discipline. Hopefully things would change.

I had stemmed the hemorrhaging of loses by placing a successful bet on Portugal to beat Wales in 90 mins and it paid off quite a few mug punts I'd been having on all sorts of rubbish to try get myself going again. I made Portugal Evens to beat them in 90mins and I got 5/4. It's nice when you get it right. But then I had a mate saying "Ahh but you tipped up a favourite, I'm not impressed". I gave him the talk about how if you always bet favourites you'll lose and the shrewdest characters know a wrong priced favourite more than they get wrong. Rubbish. I left feeling like a mug punter who just backed favourites.

As in my last blog, which was more of a France love-in than a blog, I had no serious antepost views for the Tour de France but had managed to get away some bets on bigger priced riders in the King of the Mountains across accounts and across different firms to make it a worthwhile winner. They're doing rubbish. No chance of any winners.

I had been betting on the stages and had been finding people in the breakaway but just not getting it right. I had left Steve Cummings unbacked in one of his now famous breakaway solo victories. I felt bad about that because I love Steve Cummings. Almost more than I love Chris Froome. Let me tell you a story you've probably heard or read about before.

Last year, it was the eve of Nelson Mandela Day and MTN Qhubeka as they were known back then (now Dimension Data) were the first African team in the Tour de France. They had promised something special for Nelson Mandela Day and I knew they would try get people in the breakaway as a result. It was a good stage for a breakaway so I loaded up on their riders and one of them was Steve Cummings at 200/1. I often forget his price now and how little I had on him. It's turned into a bit of a fisherman's story of me having £50 or something crazy and chopping it off. This didn't happen but I did manage to get a massive max bet of £3.50 each way on Cummings at that said price and he made the breakaway along with 20 other riders or so. A long story short, I had tweeted about it the night before and I had tweeted about it again during the day, so I couldn't be accused of after-timing and suitably began getting a tiny bit excited about the chance of him finishing third and me getting a couple of hundred quid back in the betting bank. He only went and won. I sometimes watch back the end of that stage and I love it.

It's not the amount that was won that day, even though it was lovely to pick up money from some such a small bet. It was backing a 200/1 winner. I'm sure most have backed a decent priced winner and hold them in their hearts very fondly. They're a great story and especially when you have a reason why you backed it. He was my cover photo for ages. I won just less than a grand but I will remember that bet forever. It was brilliant.

Now I must stop harking back to that day, but it does relate to this week. Friday's stage at the Tour was perfect for a breakaway and everybody knew it. Cummings was horribly short. He went off at 200/1 last year for these sort of stages but goes off more like 25/1 these days. I'm not sure he's value, I certainly didn't think he was and I didn't back him for the stage. He won it of course. People who know me and see Cummings always ask "Did you back him again?". I had to tell them I didn't. They think I'm an idiot. Maybe I should use Cummings as my lottery number. Back him every time even though the maths says not to. I woke up on Saturday feeling gutted there would be other lads with Cummings so fondly thought of in their mind and I wasn't a part of it. I needed to find a winner to ease the pain and there's only one other cyclist I hold more fondly in my heart for betting. It's Chris Froome.

I compiled my own tissue for Saturday's stage which was the first proper stage for the General Classification crew and I had Froome at between 9/4 and 3/1. Anywhere around that and I wouldn't bet and anything above it, I would. Value betting, even if my tissue was probably miles out. Books came out and I saw some crazy prices compared to my tissue. I got on at 10/1 and you may think my 3/1 was criminal. It probably was. But everything in front of me suggested he should be favourite and he wasn't. The only problem was the descent after the final climb. Froome has a tag of a bad descender but the descent wasn't so bad and I had seen him for a good few years now on technical descents and he hasn't troubled me in viewing him as a good descender. I expected him to attack before the end of the final climb and nothing came. There was nobody in front of him and I expected a good descender to take it up and go for it. Who goes for it? Only bloody Froome. He went and he went and he went. He got some seconds on them. He kept going. It was classic Team Sky and classic Froome. It looked like it was off the cuff but then afterwards you add up all of it with a total Result Bias and you realise it was planned. I had a winner. I HAD A WINNER. I had managed to get £20 win on him and £20 each way at 10/1. There was bigger available with some firms I can't get bets on with but it's nice to not scrape the top price cos I feel it gives you a better chance of retaining an account you can win from.

As Froome was descending, it's always difficult to trade cycling at these points and the prices are mixed up. Nobody really knows. There was some 5/6 available and I got another £60 on him to get some more rugby funds. Thank God he won. Into the Yellow Jersey for Froome and into the black for me. I love him. He might dope, but I don't care if he does. I'm riding on the crest of the wave with him and when he goes down, I'll go down. It's hard to win fortunes from cycling, but it's nice to win some money to pay for the losers I'd been backing.

If you've read my Twitter of late and in particular on Monday night, you may have already added up 2+2 and equaled 4 in regards to the title of this week's blog. It was the end of Love Island. 40-odd episodes of the best Reality TV show that ever existed. I was addicted. I was in denial to begin with but then I realised I should admit. I absolutely loved that show. Girls and boys of my age living it up for 6 weeks and bonking away. It was fantastic viewing. It was an evening of soft-porn, but you could talk to your in-laws about it. What better way could it have finished off? Having a bet of course.

Pretty much from the first episode I knew who would win the show. The dream was to be able to get a bet on it. If you haven't watched it and therefore still have some dignity, Nathan and Cara won the show. And I knew they would. Everyone did.

Over the last weekend a few firms had been sending out press-releases to newspapers offering out prices. The couple I made 1/5 to win it were being offered out at silly prices like 5/2. But only to the newspapers. Go on their website and there was nothing. That was until I realised Betfair Sportsbook were up. Someone had stole the 5/2 they had put up and they were 4/6. Still a fantastic price. How to get on I wondered. I was hoping they'd let me win around £150 on a shadow account full of my mug bets. I tried to load up with £240 on Nathan and Cara at 4/6 but their max bet was £100 no matter what the selection was. A £100 bet at 4/6 it was and then to get hope they realised they'd laid a bet to a total mug account and didn't change the price so that I could get my mates on for me as well. No good - straight into 1/3. They drifted out the price 8/11 during the live final and I began to worry maybe I had it wrong. Maybe my reality TV betting career was over before I could even pay for a meal out for the love of my life. I was right and they were wrong. Nathan and Cara hosed up and I had myself a massive £66 profit. More importantly I knew I was right. For a punter with a view, this is probably worth more than £66. My CV is now boasting "Reality TV betting supremo".

It has even been an excellent week for the other half. She won her work Bonus Ball twice in a week. She's been paying £4 a week for two numbers for over a year and never won. There's no over-round she's competing with so luckily for her I don't moan too much and I kept telling her she might not win for massive periods at a time and she was having none of it. Twice in a week and she bagged herself £100. She was made up. I've seen none of it. No sharing the wealth. Love really is in the air.

More next week people. I have some Super Rugby gambles lined up and I know you'll be very keen to hear about them. Good luck all.