Wednesday 13 July 2016

Love is in the air

Another week gone. Another week closer to the end of the summer. We best all get saving for Christmas and that trip to Vegas for New Year's Eve.

Since my last blog loads seems to have happened. I've been on the streets celebrating Portugal's Euro 2016 win with a load of Portuguese lads and I put my private parts on the line by betting on Reality TV. It has been eventful. Oh and Chris Froome saved me. Again.

It had been an extra-ordinarily quiet week before Saturday. I felt like I couldn't back a winner if I backed both sides of a coin toss. Discipline is so hard to keep in these periods. I'd had a great period. Actually I've had a great year overall and I had to regress back to the mean. I guess those losers were just part of it, but every punter will tell you how challenging it is to keep your discipline when things just aren't clicking. When you think a horse is value at 25/1 and it gets beaten in a photo-finish. That sort of thing.

My Grandad loves his poker and has always managed to keep his discipline. He goes to a set of casinos probably two or three times a week to play poker tournaments and has never once had a bet on one of the tables or on the slots. In 15 years, not a single bet. I find that remarkable but he knows the maths and he doesn't budge. He's too Yorkshire for that. Too stubborn and actually too shrewd. He wins more than he loses and never chases. Best of all, he always makes sure to treat my Grandma when he wins and he does right. The phrase "You judge a winner by how he loses" is always prominent with his discipline. I have no idea where that phrase is from. Probably a film or something. But it's true. Everyone can win and do it right, but the real test is when you find trouble. How do you handle it? The best handle it and the worst don't. I knew I had to keep my discipline. Hopefully things would change.

I had stemmed the hemorrhaging of loses by placing a successful bet on Portugal to beat Wales in 90 mins and it paid off quite a few mug punts I'd been having on all sorts of rubbish to try get myself going again. I made Portugal Evens to beat them in 90mins and I got 5/4. It's nice when you get it right. But then I had a mate saying "Ahh but you tipped up a favourite, I'm not impressed". I gave him the talk about how if you always bet favourites you'll lose and the shrewdest characters know a wrong priced favourite more than they get wrong. Rubbish. I left feeling like a mug punter who just backed favourites.

As in my last blog, which was more of a France love-in than a blog, I had no serious antepost views for the Tour de France but had managed to get away some bets on bigger priced riders in the King of the Mountains across accounts and across different firms to make it a worthwhile winner. They're doing rubbish. No chance of any winners.

I had been betting on the stages and had been finding people in the breakaway but just not getting it right. I had left Steve Cummings unbacked in one of his now famous breakaway solo victories. I felt bad about that because I love Steve Cummings. Almost more than I love Chris Froome. Let me tell you a story you've probably heard or read about before.

Last year, it was the eve of Nelson Mandela Day and MTN Qhubeka as they were known back then (now Dimension Data) were the first African team in the Tour de France. They had promised something special for Nelson Mandela Day and I knew they would try get people in the breakaway as a result. It was a good stage for a breakaway so I loaded up on their riders and one of them was Steve Cummings at 200/1. I often forget his price now and how little I had on him. It's turned into a bit of a fisherman's story of me having £50 or something crazy and chopping it off. This didn't happen but I did manage to get a massive max bet of £3.50 each way on Cummings at that said price and he made the breakaway along with 20 other riders or so. A long story short, I had tweeted about it the night before and I had tweeted about it again during the day, so I couldn't be accused of after-timing and suitably began getting a tiny bit excited about the chance of him finishing third and me getting a couple of hundred quid back in the betting bank. He only went and won. I sometimes watch back the end of that stage and I love it.

It's not the amount that was won that day, even though it was lovely to pick up money from some such a small bet. It was backing a 200/1 winner. I'm sure most have backed a decent priced winner and hold them in their hearts very fondly. They're a great story and especially when you have a reason why you backed it. He was my cover photo for ages. I won just less than a grand but I will remember that bet forever. It was brilliant.

Now I must stop harking back to that day, but it does relate to this week. Friday's stage at the Tour was perfect for a breakaway and everybody knew it. Cummings was horribly short. He went off at 200/1 last year for these sort of stages but goes off more like 25/1 these days. I'm not sure he's value, I certainly didn't think he was and I didn't back him for the stage. He won it of course. People who know me and see Cummings always ask "Did you back him again?". I had to tell them I didn't. They think I'm an idiot. Maybe I should use Cummings as my lottery number. Back him every time even though the maths says not to. I woke up on Saturday feeling gutted there would be other lads with Cummings so fondly thought of in their mind and I wasn't a part of it. I needed to find a winner to ease the pain and there's only one other cyclist I hold more fondly in my heart for betting. It's Chris Froome.

I compiled my own tissue for Saturday's stage which was the first proper stage for the General Classification crew and I had Froome at between 9/4 and 3/1. Anywhere around that and I wouldn't bet and anything above it, I would. Value betting, even if my tissue was probably miles out. Books came out and I saw some crazy prices compared to my tissue. I got on at 10/1 and you may think my 3/1 was criminal. It probably was. But everything in front of me suggested he should be favourite and he wasn't. The only problem was the descent after the final climb. Froome has a tag of a bad descender but the descent wasn't so bad and I had seen him for a good few years now on technical descents and he hasn't troubled me in viewing him as a good descender. I expected him to attack before the end of the final climb and nothing came. There was nobody in front of him and I expected a good descender to take it up and go for it. Who goes for it? Only bloody Froome. He went and he went and he went. He got some seconds on them. He kept going. It was classic Team Sky and classic Froome. It looked like it was off the cuff but then afterwards you add up all of it with a total Result Bias and you realise it was planned. I had a winner. I HAD A WINNER. I had managed to get £20 win on him and £20 each way at 10/1. There was bigger available with some firms I can't get bets on with but it's nice to not scrape the top price cos I feel it gives you a better chance of retaining an account you can win from.

As Froome was descending, it's always difficult to trade cycling at these points and the prices are mixed up. Nobody really knows. There was some 5/6 available and I got another £60 on him to get some more rugby funds. Thank God he won. Into the Yellow Jersey for Froome and into the black for me. I love him. He might dope, but I don't care if he does. I'm riding on the crest of the wave with him and when he goes down, I'll go down. It's hard to win fortunes from cycling, but it's nice to win some money to pay for the losers I'd been backing.

If you've read my Twitter of late and in particular on Monday night, you may have already added up 2+2 and equaled 4 in regards to the title of this week's blog. It was the end of Love Island. 40-odd episodes of the best Reality TV show that ever existed. I was addicted. I was in denial to begin with but then I realised I should admit. I absolutely loved that show. Girls and boys of my age living it up for 6 weeks and bonking away. It was fantastic viewing. It was an evening of soft-porn, but you could talk to your in-laws about it. What better way could it have finished off? Having a bet of course.

Pretty much from the first episode I knew who would win the show. The dream was to be able to get a bet on it. If you haven't watched it and therefore still have some dignity, Nathan and Cara won the show. And I knew they would. Everyone did.

Over the last weekend a few firms had been sending out press-releases to newspapers offering out prices. The couple I made 1/5 to win it were being offered out at silly prices like 5/2. But only to the newspapers. Go on their website and there was nothing. That was until I realised Betfair Sportsbook were up. Someone had stole the 5/2 they had put up and they were 4/6. Still a fantastic price. How to get on I wondered. I was hoping they'd let me win around £150 on a shadow account full of my mug bets. I tried to load up with £240 on Nathan and Cara at 4/6 but their max bet was £100 no matter what the selection was. A £100 bet at 4/6 it was and then to get hope they realised they'd laid a bet to a total mug account and didn't change the price so that I could get my mates on for me as well. No good - straight into 1/3. They drifted out the price 8/11 during the live final and I began to worry maybe I had it wrong. Maybe my reality TV betting career was over before I could even pay for a meal out for the love of my life. I was right and they were wrong. Nathan and Cara hosed up and I had myself a massive £66 profit. More importantly I knew I was right. For a punter with a view, this is probably worth more than £66. My CV is now boasting "Reality TV betting supremo".

It has even been an excellent week for the other half. She won her work Bonus Ball twice in a week. She's been paying £4 a week for two numbers for over a year and never won. There's no over-round she's competing with so luckily for her I don't moan too much and I kept telling her she might not win for massive periods at a time and she was having none of it. Twice in a week and she bagged herself £100. She was made up. I've seen none of it. No sharing the wealth. Love really is in the air.

More next week people. I have some Super Rugby gambles lined up and I know you'll be very keen to hear about them. Good luck all.

Sunday 3 July 2016

Vive la France

Did you ever move to a new school and have to make new friends? If so, I feel very sorry for you. This weekend I've experienced what can be best described as a culture shock. The reason? My girlfriend has left me.... For the weekend. She comes back sometime soon but this weekend I have felt lost and without friends. I imagine this is what it's like to change schools.

She left on Friday morning and by Friday evening I had made an entire mess of the flat and was tucking into a takeaway as I was mourning the fact my life had been turned upside down for just 12 hours. Come Sunday morning, I had spent the entire weekend watching rugby, cycling, horse racing and football. What a life. I knew it couldn't last. Too much housework to do before she arrived back home.

Half of the problem was that I had too much time on my hands. I managed to snag this weekend off without booking it as holiday. A very rare pleasure when you work in the betting industry. It hasn't helped my sense of loss and loneliness. By mid-Saturday I wanted to be back in work. I'd probably work every day of the week if I could - anything to get out of the housework afterall.

Like I say, I've struggled so much this weekend but my pride could not be dented. I needed to make it look like I have flourished without her. She needed to walk in and realise how independent I am. How if she left me, I'd do great. Better infact. Operation Do Shitloads Of Housework started. I have done more housework than I have ever done before. I am shattered. I couldn't be a house-husband. Work hard and fall asleep in a pit of my own misery and filth is how I intend to live. As long as she gets my wage-packet at the end of the month everything is good right? Right?

Enough of the housework and self-pity. That was for last week with the Remain losings. I STILL CAN'T BELIEVE REMAIN LOST.

Sorry about that. Never again, I promise.

The best time of the year has arrived and already started to pass. As I mentioned, I dedicated this weekend to watching sport but especially cycling. The Tour de France has holds a special place in my heart. I had a form-tutor at high school who wasn't much into betting but loved his cycling and would part with his cash just this month. I remember in the mid-2000s another of my teachers had told me about his cycling betting and gave me some of his tips. Half of the tips he gave me didn't even make it to the starting line cos they were done for doping. Do they count as value losers? They'd have probably gone well considering how doped they must have been to get caught in an era notoriously tough to get doping.

I properly got into cycling betting in 2013. I had left university and was waiting for the right job. This means two things - I was unemployed and I wanted a job working for a bookmaker. The whole of that July I spent watching Chris Froome win his first Tour de France. It was great. Having no job and nothing better to do was a fabulous time. People say to me.. "How can you watch a cycling stage from start to finish without getting bored?". I tell them I was unemployed one time and watching cycling was the only thing stopping me from becoming mentally unstable from boredom. They were great times.

More than just the Tour de France, I am affirmatively a Francophile. I absolutely love France. Everything about the country. Mainly just the fact they're not English. It's a crying shame we never remained under French rule back in the day. I'm learning French (again!) and actually making a lot of progress. Well, as much progress as someone trying to speak French with a (mellowing) Yorkshire accent can do. It would be a lot easier to have just been born into a French speaking country and not have to learn it all again. That boy Napoleon let us down. At least he left us his casinos.

I told you in my first blog about Chris Froome last year and how a winner felt like a loser. I am balls deep in absolutely nothing this year. The 10/11 about Sagan for the Green Jersey I wanted to smash up? Nothing on. I left it for others to get into it and let him go off at 1/2. Enjoy your winnings lads.

I have two outright bets going. Both were placed when I was under the influence of alcohol and/or glorious optimism. I have a bet on Tom Dumoulin at ridiculously huge prices when he was all so close to winning La Vuelta last year. Oh and Fabio Aru. I placed this after my works Christmas Party. I was very drunk and thought 16/1 was too big. He had won La Vuelta - the perfect warm-up for a Tour de France winning year (apparently!) and Nibali wasn't flavour of the month at all. Aru had to be shorter than Nibali. The Shark (Nibali's nickname for you who live a normal life), wasn't even going to be going to the Tour de France this year after a disastrous 2015 event. How wrong was I. Never bet drunk!! Aru has been terrible since La Vuelta. Nibali is indeed at Le Tour and 16/1 was well... Aru's starting price. I placed a bet 8 months in advance on a minor sport and I didn't even find any value. That's bad.

I have some big price interests in the King of the Mountains and Young Riders Classification such as Daniel Navarro and Daniel Teklehaimanot. The latter I have I attempted to spell his name without checking I have done it right. Please don't comment telling me it's wrong if it is indeed wrong. Please do tell me if I'm right. Both have lost time already and will hopefully concentrate on the King of the Mountains and in a market that is open to so much variance such as knowing a riders intentions, getting a run for your money is of the utmost importance. Lawson Craddock and Emanuel Buchmann are my Young Riders bets and have avoided losing time in the first two stages. I have hope.

My Euro 2016 hopes are all but dead and buried. Overall, minus all my losers and adding some winners, I'm on Portugal and France at an average of about 1/10. Maybe not that bad, but it is bad. I placed the France bet in 2014 and I have a crumpled up William Hill betting slip lying around the flat. I might have to post to a friend to collect in England as the cost of the ferry to get back to England will take up even more money. What a shocking state of affairs. I pinned my hopes on Belgium and they let me down. I have no doubts I'll be betting on them for the World Cup in 2018. Gluten for punishment.

I best love you and leave you all. I have more housework to do and more football to watch. Next week will no doubt just be a pure blog of Heartbreak Hotel of Tour de France stage betting losers. If I have a winner like Steve Cummings last year I will probably post selfies with my top off. Let's hope for all our sake that doesn't happen.