Sunday 26 June 2016

You can't eat value..

Well. What a few weeks it's been.

I haven't done the promised weekly blog for the last few weeks and for that I apologise to you. I understand you need your fix of utter rubbish and ramblings of a mug punter and luckily for you... Here it is.

They say you can't eat value and by God they're right. You certainly can't eat losing mug punts either. It all started to go downhill when I took the other half out for a decent meal. We live in Guernsey in the Channel Islands and it's entirely lovely. The sort of place your mum and dad dream of retiring to. We went out for a meal and I am a hopeless wannabe Yuppie. The place was full of Tories and also French lads who had, no doubts, come over on their yacht. Some bankers in there and plenty of people far better off than myself. In this situation, it's easy to become uncomfortable. Not me. I'm pure wannabe Yuppie after-all. Most expensive starter - Yes. Expensive wine neither of us want - Yes. Ridiculous tip well over the recommended 10% - Of course.

It was all going well until the waiter threw a glass of wine over the most Tory/Brexit OAPs in there. All hell broke loose. It was so embarrassing. The worst thing was that suddenly the Brexiters eyed up the most expensive things on the menu knowing there was a decent chance of a big discount. They were ruthless. The poor waiter offered to pay for dry-cleaning of this OAP's £40 M&S suit jacket but they knew they could get more out of it than a mere free dry-clean. They'd probably have been decent arbsters those lot. Maximum return from the situation. Martin Lewis would've been proud.

I felt sorry for the waiter and sorry for myself. I'm actually a kind hearted lad and to see some poor soul do his wages in one go was sad. I'm sure if he saw all the losers I'd backed the last few weeks he'd feel sorry for me too. Would he tip me 25% though? Probably not.

Leaving the place, I knew I'd done my pieces on food that was okay but not exceptional. Money wasted. It reminded me of something though. Back in the day, I had an awful drunk habit. I used to eat money. No really - I used to eat money. It was taboo I suppose. "Look at this guy eating a £20 note when there are people who could spend that £20 on booze". I know I have had this awful habit for a very long time. When I was a young kid I nearly choked when I ate a 2p piece. I nearly threw up in primary-school assembly as this 2p was soaked up in my stomach acid and flushed down the toilet for Yorkshire Water to enjoy. Quickly learning that it wasn't sensible to eat coins, I moved onto eating food and notes. I always used to try eat £5 notes cos there was value in that. You'd get to prove you were better off than the person who was witnessing you EAT YOUR OWN MONEY but you weren't left that skint you couldn't afford a taxi home after the night out. I'm proud to say when you realise you're not normal and you should stop drunkedly eating your own money I stopped. It's been 4+ years without eating any money but I can still waste and spend money like a mug. I now choose to waste my money on betting on football, especially during big football tournaments.

The start of Euro 2016 seems like years ago. It was probably the last time I backed a winner in a match. In the 2014 World Cup, Brazil opened up against Croatia and I remember the Both Teams To Score was odds-against. I piled in and had a winner in the first half. Like all good mug punters, it was now a tradition. Start of a major tournament? Odds-against BTTS it is. That Romania goal by the boy Stancu. What a time to be alive. Working in the industry, it's hard not to cheer on the results that help you out most and that Payet goal was like a dagger through the heart. That same feeling prevailed for a good few days until Bale and his boys sorted me out.

It's funny really because I'm a well rounded individual and I am also very well rounded. What this means is I know a lot about many sports and I am also very fat. The one thing I take most pleasure in is being right about football. I'm often so wrong about football that the only time I am right about a view I must tell everyone how right I was.

This year, the only time I was right was Wales. Oh Wales - with their made-up language and their low quality Premier League side with Gareth Bale. I had suitably piled into them in plenty of markets - but crucially not to win the whole thing!! There was some ups and some downs but them winning Group B was supposed to sort me out for the rest of eternity. I can't downplay how nervous I was during England's 0-0 draw with Slovakia but by God I was relieved when I was right about Wales and could act Billy Big'Un. Oh and I had some money to burn. And burn it I did.

In the distant past, I pictured now living in a post-Remain society where everybody loves the EU and I love the easy money earned on the back of it. It wasn't to be. Looking back, the single worst thing that could've ever happened was Queensland winning State of Origin on the Wednesday and me piling into the EU Referendum on the Thursday. The Maroons were lucky to win & had I my winnings in my account (after a delay because one firm wanted to settle after the 3rd match, a dead rubber). I piled my profit and more into the EU referendum and when the Mrs got home I persuaded her we should bet some more.

I think most punters have a bet where they say to themselves "this cannot lose". Some punters have it every day others maybe once a lifetime. I would say this was the most sure I have ever been about a bet & once you remove yourself from the statistical likelihood of each possible event and start treating it as 100% sure of an outcome - well you are in trouble (and rightly so).

It was an expensive lesson, but a lesson nonetheless. I enjoy a nice lifestyle. I have a girlfriend who is well educated & works in the finance industry and I have travelled the world and enjoyed the fruits of being brought up by decent parents albeit with a fair few sprinklings of Northern England and it's working class roots. The biggest mistake I made was forgetting that not everybody thought about the EU the way I did. As much as I would like to pretend I bet on the referendum way beyond my means, I would be lying. My bank is diminished but not extinguished. We will live to fight on another day.

(Apologies in advance for the pure unadulterated middle-aged man rant I am about to have)

One of the worst things about the EU Referendum was my savings. Waking up the next the morning knowing I had done my absolute pieces was bad enough but to see the value of the £ collapse was like losing the bet all over again. I probably lost just as much on the value of my savings than I did on the bet. The reason this is so, is because in the distant future I hope to retire*. By retire I mean move to New Zealand or Australia and enjoy my days watching rugby, winning by betting on rugby and fishing for sharks. My savings diminishing in value compared to the NZD and the AUD meant I might have to work another month or so before it becomes reality. Little did the absolute scrotes who voted Leave know how much pain and anguish they had caused me. I still feel depressed about it all. I'm not sure if it's cos of the losings and the savings or something more philosophical. I can no longer work in Austria if I wished. I've never wanted to work in places like Austria, but at least there was an option. It's a mess isn't it.

The last time I wrote my blog I left you with my Remain & Clinton for US President sure-fire double. Happy times but we know how that turned out. I'm not sure I'll leave you with any more depressing short-priced losers on this blog - not for this week anyway. I'm too depressed about not being able to work in Austria and the likes.

Remember kids - You can't eat value and you shouldn't eat money either.

Love and peace - except to the scrotes who voted Leave & made me (more) miserable.




Sunday 5 June 2016

What A Time To Be Alive

It's Sunday. God's day. The day of rest and on such a day, it's a great time to make it clear we are living in the halcyon days of punting. That's what they say anyway.

My first blog, a preview blog maybe, got more views than I was expecting. Thanks for that. I'm unsure of which way the blog should go (career crisis after about 20 views of a blog - this is great) but I'll give you the run down of what happened during my first week as a Blogger. With the Copa America already started and Euro 2016 on its way along with the Derby meeting at Epsom it was imperative to only back winners so I could re-invest it all on all sorts of fanciful things.

Somehow, I got Queensland up in that first game and put my series bet in a very healthy position. They're about 1/4 to win the thing now and the winnings are already being spent. 1/4 shots don't lose do they? That's what the Twitter Tipsters say.

It's remarkable how when you have a winner suddenly value just appears everywhere. Some of my Queensland match winnings were with Marathon and so I was obliged to not withdraw anything until I had given them the chance to win it back off me. Horse racing it is. After some sparring I had found a winner and it had drifted on the show from my 6/4 out to an even juicier 7/4. Lovely. How good is Best Odds Guaranteed? Not that good apparently. I almost assumed every firm had this concession but seemingly not. I sort of respect them for not even giving BOG but whoever made up the phrase "It's better to have loved and lost than never loved at all" is wrong. The correct phrase is, "It's better to have had BOG and lost it than never had it all".

I've been having bad headaches recently and it's not because I'm struggling to comprehend how easy this game is. I needed to go to the doctors. "I've been having headaches" I said. "Take off your shirt" he said. Not a great start. The doctor had hay-fever and I ended up counseling him more than the other way round. In the most awkward moment of the appointment I said to him "I hope it gets better". That's right. Me telling a doctor I hope he gets better. He must have wanted to give up the game.

Blood tests were required to "rule out most things". Off to the nurses office. The nurse in question was retiring soon and was training up her incumbent. While she tried to distract me from the fact I was being butchered up and having heinous amounts of blood taken out she asked me about my job. Ah a good old chat about The Industry. She must have had some retirement funds burning a hole in her white outfit cos she was keen to know about the ins and outs of it all. Like many who don't work in The Industry, she adopted that tone of "Awww I feel sorry for you that I and everyone else feels utter disdain for you". I feel like that too sometimes.

Nurses are funny old people. My mum was a nurse and their job turns them into heartless individuals I find. They've seen it all and they've heard it all. It made my mum (no idea why past tense, she's still alive), into a person with a terrible sense of humour. I was 4 and on Christmas Day, I bounded down the stairs happy to see what old Santa had brought me. Before I could reach the second-to-top stair by Mum shouted up to me "Oh my God". I hastily replied "What Mum? What?". In all her glory and I have no idea why, she said "Santa hasn't been". I collapsed. Slumped to my bum on the stairs and instantly burst into tears. It was a joke she said. Some joke. Santa had been but I swear none of you have a Heartbreak Hotel story like that. I'm still bitter & twisted to this day.

I'd like to blame the loss of blood on Thursday as to being the reason why I did my absolute pieces on Wakefield to beat Hull KR on a -4 handicap. I shiver now looking back to that terrible time a massive 3 days ago. I had a friendly £50 on the handicap at evens with bet365. Wakefield were quickly losing by a relatively huge amount so there was only one thing for it. In again. This time at +6.5 in-play and then in again on their match prices at a Betfair Exchange price of 11.0. Wakey were only losing by 10 points with 20 minutes to go and it was well within the rugby league possibilities that they went and did the job and got some pennies back for me. They lost by 38 points. Oh dear. I'd lost my blood and lost my money. This wasn't supposed to be how it all ended.

The saving grace in all this was Chris 'Mike' Smalling. Portugal were without Ronaldo but as I woke up on Thursday morning the price had nearly gone. Nevertheless I still made them value at anything that wasn't odds-on and went into England at Evens and lobbed them in a double with Worcestershire to beat Yorkshire in the T20. By the time I placed the double in the early evening, I'd missed the prices for both those selections and I think the double paid just over 15/8. All was going well when Worcestershire were cruising and England were playing against 10 lads from Portugal. Easy this. With 6 minutes to go, it wasn't looking so good. Up steps Chrissy Smalldog and all is good again. Redemption for doing my pieces on Wakefield. I'd got back my losings and was ready to smash up the Derby weekend.

An Oaks-Derby double wasn't beyond me. In fact I wouldn't accept any less.

That didn't happen. Obviously.

I had sold it to myself that the Oaks and Derby were terribly weak this year and resembled a set of handicap fields. For that reason I chased the big priced winners. Not to be.

Between the million offers and a clean mug punter account, I think it's almost impossible to do your absolute pieces these days on any horse race(s) on Channel 4. I made a very good go of it though. I definitely lost on the horses and if it were not for some rugby league bets across the weekend that bordered on palpable, I would certainly have been in a worse position as I write this.

There would be no retirement this weekend. In fact I'm not sure there ever will be with such tame betting, but with the State of Origin series bet a certainty* and with enough funds in the betting account I'm confident of success. I've booked a suite on The Strip in Las Vegas for New Year's and I refuse to pay for it with my own cold hard. Time to put my foot down on the pedal.

It's fortunate I did this as suddenly I spotted even more certainties, just when I needed them, that were there as juicey Brucey bonuses. Remain wins the EU referendum and Hilary Clinton wins the Presidential Election in the USA. I've about three weeks to accumulate as much money as possible to run onto the double and I'll be writing a blog in 2017 from the sands of the Nevada desert.

That double above, at present, pays Evens. Yes you read that right.... EVENS. You lay down everything you have and come November, you have double everything you had in June. What a time to be alive.